Identifying Valid Climate Change Science
This neat synopsis comes to us from a group called Cool Winchester that is embarked on an ambitious plan to reduce residential energy consumption in Winchester, Mass. It's a helpful condensing of the often confusing information coming from world scientific organizations. Thanks Cool Winchester!
1) Listen to pre-eminent scientific bodies of global standing:
* Consult the largest national and international scientific bodies which collectively represent the majority of the world's scientists. Scientists in these bodies can be expected to follow established scientific procedures, such as peer review, and thus provide scientifically valid results.
Individual scientists and small groups of scientists, no matter how appealing their statements, do not deliver large scale consensus on issues and may not even deliver facts. Such scientists (and non scientists) have brought us false "science", such as cold fusion and global warming "disinformation".
2) So, what are the largest national and international bodies of climate scientists?
National: (The US being, presumably, still the world's largest economy, this is worth including)
a) The USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program) formed by US Congress, consists of thirteen US Government departments and agencies.
International:
b) The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ) is an international scientific intergovernmental body tasked with evaluating the risk of climate change caused by human activity. The panel was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), two organizations of the United Nations.
A main activity of the IPCC is publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an international treaty that acknowledges the possibility of harmful climate change.
The IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific literature. The IPCC is only open to member states of the WMO and UNEP. IPCC reports are widely cited in almost any debate related to climate change. National and international responses to climate change generally regard the UN climate panel as authoritative.
c) The ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment) is a project of the eight nation Arctic Council and the IASC (International Arctic Science Committee), a nongovernmental organization of arctic climate science institutions.
d) International Joint Science Academies Statements: The signatories of these statements have been the national science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Cameroon, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Ghana, Germany, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, India, Japan, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, New Zealand, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Sweden, Tanzania, Uganda, United Kingdom, United States, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
3) What do these pre-eminent, highly qualified bodies say about climate change?
a) The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June, 2009 that: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.
b) The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 is the most recent. It reports that global warming has begun, is with more than 90% certainty caused by the burning of fossil fuels and will be unstoppable for centuries. It was their strongest conclusion to date, making it nearly impossible to say natural forces are to blame. It details the anticipated increases in climate disruption and sea level rise. The report also states, "Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values over the past 650,000 years. People from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report over the previous 6 years. These people included more than 2500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 800 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors
c) The 2004 synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment states: Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
d) Since 2001, 32 national science academies (listed previously) have come together to issue joint declarations confirming anthropogenic (human caused) global warming, and urging the nations of the world to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
In December 2009, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a joint statement declaring, "Climate change and sustainable energy supply are crucial challenges for the future of humanity. It is essential that world leaders agree on the emission reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climate change". The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid."
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